Editors Note: This is a reprint of a piece that originally
appeared on Friday in our sister site OptionInvestor.com. We
felt it would be the perfect start for our newest section. Our
Net Bulls area already contained an section for long-term tech
play and we saw the need for a similar section that focused on the shares of non-tech companies. Our first selection is a seasonal play that takes advantage of the historical tendency of soup sales to rise during the winter months - Campbell Soup (CPB).
During our daily banter in the office, Mr. Bailey pointed out
that Campbell Soup (CPB) has a tendency to rally at the start of
September. I (Jeff Canavan) decided to drop the data into
Microsoft Access, and see if the theory holds true. Here's what
I found.
Total Point Gain by Month for Campbell Soup (1992-2001)
January ($22.98)
February ($ 2.08)
March $ 3.65
April ($ 5.29)
May $ 5.66
June $ 2.21
July ($ 0.58)
August ($ 9.94)
September $ 7.31
October $21.31
November $16.50
December ($ 1.88)
Average Point Gain Average Percentage Gain
January ($2.30) (5.70%)
February ($0.21) (0.21%)
March $0.36 1.31%
April ($0.53) (1.79%)
May $0.57 2.04%
June $0.22 0.06%
July ($0.06) (0.24%)
August ($1.10) (1.80%)
September $0.81 3.81%
October $2.37 7.26%
November $1.83 5.48%
December ($0.19) 0.39%
Campbell Soup Seasonality Charts
Campbell Soup has finished the month of September higher 6 out of
the last 9 years, finished October higher 8 out of 9 times, and
posted gains in November 5 of the past 9 years.
During those nine years Campbell has gained a total of $45.12
from September thru November, while losing a total of $31 the
other nine months. The average monthly gain for the three-month
period is $5.01, or 16.55%.
Nine years of data isn't statistically sound, but it's
interesting nevertheless. Since August is coming to an end, lets
see what Campbell is cooking up.
Campbell Soup Daily Chart
CPB has gained $2 in August, climbing above the 50-day moving
average and breaking a seven-month downtrend in the process. The
stock has since consolidated around $28. Resistance at $28.75
has to be dealt with and past performance is not a guarantee of
future results, but could a seasonal up trend be brewing?
Jeffrey Canavan
